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Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32308/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the S/SE in STEREO A COR2. The source may be a C8.9 flare from AR 3762, with dimming visible starting 2024-07-29T01:17Z in SDO AIA 193. Post-eruptive arcades are also observed. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. The CME is faint, especially in STEREO A COR2, with an unclear leading edge, leading to some uncertainty in the source of this CME. The X1.5 flare from AR 3764 starting at 2024-07-29T02:33Z, after the start of this CME, and is not a source candidate for this event. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32322/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=564.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T07:27Z
2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T08:06Z
2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=750.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T18:05Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-01T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-01T07:25Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T06:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T15:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 69.42 hour(s)
Difference: 0.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-07-29T19:22Z

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